A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”EconomyPolitics
“You are going to see a crack in the Bond market, OK? It is going to happen”MarketsEconomy
“Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.”EconomyPolitics
“To be sure, US inflation will surge above 4% this year.”EconomyMarkets
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”EconomyPolitics
“So we believe as an industry that in the next one year the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.”AIEconomy
“I think that's probably a likely outcome”Economy
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”EconomyPolitics
“The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession,”Economy
“I don't think that you're going to see a big effect on the consumer in the U.S. because I do think that the reason why we have a persistent, long-run trade deficit these people have very inelastic supply.”EconomyPoliticsGeopolitics
“I think if we're lucky we'll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get none”Economy
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.”Economy
“In our view, the market today is discounting the last leg of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump Administration and the Powell Fed many more degrees of freedom than investors expect, setting up the US economy for a deflationary boom in the second half of this year.”Economy
“I can't tell you exactly when it'll come, it's like the heart attack. You're getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.”EconomyMarkets
“The actual Han ethnicity is going to vanish from the world by the end of this century.”Economy
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.”AIEconomy
“The "Department of Government Efficiency," an external advisory committee led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy (two major Trump campaign donors), will come nowhere close to cutting the federal budget by $2 trillion, as originally promised.”PoliticsEconomy
“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”Economy
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”AIEconomy
“take another year or two from here, but I, I'm confident that that's the path we're on.”Economy
“it will enable us to create highly intelligent and knowledgeable assistants who will increase productivity in almost all industries.”AIEconomy
“But I think in the near term, and maybe even in the medium term, medium term like 2, 3, 4 years, I expect that humans will continue to have a huge role and the nature of programming will change, but programming as a role, programming as a job will not change.”AITechnologyEconomy
“Look, the good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
“I estimate that over the next 25 years, possibly 80% of 80% of all jobs, can be done by an AI”AIEconomy
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”MarketsEconomy
“We're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon”EnergyEconomy
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one.”Economy
“I think it will change the world tremendously in terms of people’s productivity and there will be a remapping of jobs, I think, and wage structure from some industries to others”AIEconomy
“I think--I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down. That's, that's my forecast.”Economy