Unresolvable ●●●●●
Oil prices will fall to roughly $30-35 per barrel within the next few years (by about 2029).
“During the next few years, we would not be surprised to see the oil price drop back toward ~$30-35 per barrel”Energy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Accurate ●●●●●
The United States will carry out bombing strikes on Iran within about two weeks of late February 2026 (by about March 8, 2026).
“But it does look like we're going to be bombing Iran within a couple of weeks.”GeopoliticsEnergy
Pending ●●●●●
Helion will soon (within about two years, by early 2027) demonstrate net-gain fusion, showing that fusion works.
“Soon. Well, soon there will be a demonstration of net-gain fusion. … But I would expect Helion will show you that fusion works soon.”EnergyTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US gasoline prices will fall below $2 a gallon.
“We're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon”EnergyEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By about 2034 solar and wind will supply all of humanity's energy.
“So at that rate, in about 10 years, we'll be getting all of our energy that way, and it'll keep getting cheaper.”EnergyClimate
Pending ●●●●●
Electric vehicles will make up the large majority of new car sales by February 2029.
“We think electric vehicles are going to continue to gain share and really take over the market in the next five years.”TechnologyEnergy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Germany's entire manufacturing base will come to an end by January 2025 (within two years of January 2023).
“We're looking at the end of the entire German manufacturing base within two years”EconomyEnergy
Accurate ●●●●●
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, oil prices will spike to well above $100 a barrel in the short term (inferred window: 2022).
“Oil and natural gas prices will spike further – to well above $100 per barrel – as will many other commodity prices”EnergyGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will soon follow lumber and copper lower (falling from mid-2021 levels by the end of 2021).
“We believe oil prices will not be far behind, despite the significant cutbacks in energy-related capital spending”EnergyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US coal-mining employment will recover substantially (miners put back to work) during a Trump first term (2017-2020).
“We're going to put the miners back to work.”EnergyEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By February 2031, the world will discover a clean-energy breakthrough (cheap, reliable, zero-carbon) capable of powering the world and stopping climate change.
“Within the next 15 years—and especially if young people get involved—I expect the world will discover a clean energy breakthrough that will save our planet and power our world.”EnergyClimate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will rise gradually from about $57 (WTI) over the 18 months to end-2016.
“I think that, over the next year and a half, gradually all [oil] prices are going to go higher.”EnergyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will not return to $100 a barrel (long-run claim, inferred window about 10 years to 2025).
“But we're not going to go back to a world of... $100 per barrel.”EnergyMarkets
Partly right ●●●●●
Within 10 years of March 2012 (by March 2022), the costs of solar, wind, hydrogen and other renewables will fall below the cost of fossil fuels.
“The falling cost of solar, hydrogen, renewable, wind power, geothermal power and the rising cost of fossil fuels will cross within 10 years”EnergyClimate
Pending ●●●●●
Humanity will become a Kardashev Type I (planetary) civilization, harnessing roughly all energy available on Earth, by 2111.
“Calculating the energy output of the planet, we can estimate that we will attain Type I status within 100 years.”Energy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2031 solar power will meet all of the world's energy needs.
“In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been underway for 20 years.”EnergyClimate
Accurate ●●●●●
The United States will come to import its next-generation clean technology from China.
“To my fellow Americans, I say watch out: Not only will we be importing toys but also the next generation of clean technology as well”EnergyTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Demand for clean energy and energy efficiency will explode, making clean energy the next great global industry.
“In that kind of a world, demand for clean energy, clean fuel, energy efficiency is clearly going to explode. It's clearly going to be the next great global industry.”EnergyClimate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Cellulosic ethanol will be produced at $1.25 per gallon or cheaper within three years (by January 2010).
“I so believe that $1.25 or cheaper cellulosic ethanol is less than three years away”EnergyClimate