Pending ●●●●●
AI will not cause mass unemployment (inferred window: about 10 years, to mid-2033).
“AI will not cause mass unemployment”AIEconomy
Marc Andreessen
Co-founder of Netscape and venture firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
InvestorTech leader14predictions
4pending
6accurate
3late or partial
1inaccurate
75%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
Every child will have access to a personal AI tutor.
“Every child will have an AI tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will cause economy-wide productivity growth to accelerate dramatically.
“Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The easy-money startup funding market will turn, and many high-burn-rate startups will fail as a result.
“When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By about March 2016, Bitcoin will be mainstream and libertarians will have turned against it.
“My prediction is that libertarians are going to turn on Bitcoin. That’ll be in about two years, when it’ll be mainstream”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2034, the news industry will be 10 to 100 times larger than it was in 2014.
“I am more bullish about the future of the news industry over the next 20 years than almost anyone I know. You are going to see it grow 10X to 100X from where it is today.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Unless a much better rival displaces it quickly, Bitcoin's network effect will make it the dominant cryptocurrency.
“If something is to displace Bitcoin now, it will have to have sizable improvements and it will have to happen quickly. Otherwise, this network effect will carry Bitcoin to dominance.”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
By August 2021, many more industries will be disrupted by software, mostly by new Silicon Valley companies.
“Over the next 10 years, I expect many more industries to be disrupted by software, with new world-beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not.”TechnologyEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
By August 2021, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Cable Internet access to homes will arrive within three to four years of August 1995 (by August 1999).
“I think one of the exciting things that going to happen over the next three or four years is cable Internet access.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
New access providers (MCI, the regional Bells, online services) will offer cheap nationwide Internet access, sharply increasing the number of people going online by about 1997.
“They are going to provide nationwide coverage at extremely competitive rates. It's going to be really revolutionary in terms of the number of people who will be going online.”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
About ten years out (by 2005), multi-megabit data access, including wireless, will be available just about everywhere.
“You’re going to get megabits of data while you’re eating, and you are not even going to think twice about it.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
From 1995 to 2005, network bandwidth will grow and fall in price even faster than microprocessor power improves.
“I don't think it's too much of an overstatement to say that bandwidth is going to be increasing, overall, in scope – and decreasing in price – even faster than microprocessors are in terms of power over the next 10 years”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Within three to five years (by 1999), the Internet/Web will become a new mass medium for society in general.
“three to five years from now there will be a new type of medium for society in general.”Technology