Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Robotaxi service will cover areas home to half the US population by the end of 2025.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Elon Musk | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Jamie Dimon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Larry Summers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Paul Krugman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ray Kurzweil | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
SpaceX will have built a self-sustaining city on Mars by around 2044.
“Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years”
Pending ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist by around the end of 2025.
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”
Pending ●●●●●
By 2029 medical research will add at least one year of remaining life expectancy for every year that passes (longevity escape velocity).
“By 2029, you'll get back a full year.”
Inaccurate ●●●●●
New US COVID-19 cases will fall to close to zero by the end of April 2020.
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
Right, but late ●●●●●
Tesla will operate autonomous robotaxis, in at least some jurisdictions, in 2020.
“I feel very confident in predicting autonomous robotaxis next year”
Pending ●●●●●
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature complete in 2019: able to pick you up in a parking lot and drive you to your destination without intervention.
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year”
Pending ●●●●●
During the 2030s, nanorobots sent into the human brain will provide full-immersion virtual reality and connect the neocortex to the cloud.
“In the 2030s we are going to send nanorobots into the brain that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud.”
Pending ●●●●●
An AI will pass a valid Turing test, achieving human-level intelligence, by 2029.
“2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence.”
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045 humans will merge with AI and multiply their effective intelligence a billionfold (the Singularity).
“I have set the date 2045 for the 'Singularity' which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.”
Right, but late ●●●●●
A Tesla will complete a fully autonomous demonstration drive from Los Angeles to New York, with no human touch, by the end of 2017.
“all the way from LA to New York … by the end of next year”
Inaccurate ●●●●●
SpaceX will launch the first people to Mars in 2024, arriving in 2025.
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025”
Pending ●●●●●
Conventional silicon computers will reach about 20 million billion operations per second (a high estimate of human-brain capacity) before 2020.
“achieving even a conservatively high estimate of the information processing capacity of the human brain … will be achieved by conventional silicon circuits prior to 2020.”
Pending ●●●●●
By 2009 supercomputers will reach at least 20 petaflops, matching the hardware capacity of the human brain.
“Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain … 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops).”
Pending ●●●●●
By 2009 most text will be created by speaking (speech recognition) rather than typing.
“Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking.”
Pending ●●●●●
The US economy will expand continuously, without recession, from 1999 through 2009.
“Despite occasional corrections, the ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion and prosperity”