Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Robotaxi service will cover areas home to half the US population by the end of 2025.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”Self-driving
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Allan Lichtman | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% | |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 67% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 67% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 44% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% | |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% | |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Global robotaxi services will generate $8-10 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
“We think that the robotaxi opportunity, globally, will deliver $8 to $10 trillion in revenue by 2030”Self-driving
Right, but late ●●●●●
Tesla will operate autonomous robotaxis, in at least some jurisdictions, in 2020.
“I feel very confident in predicting autonomous robotaxis next year”Self-driving
Pending ●●●●●
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature complete in 2019: able to pick you up in a parking lot and drive you to your destination without intervention.
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year”Self-driving
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Robotaxis will arrive in 2019 and self-driving cars will be on the road (for consumers) in 2020.
“Year after that, robot taxis. The year after that, self-driving cars.”Self-driving
Right, but late ●●●●●
A Tesla will complete a fully autonomous demonstration drive from Los Angeles to New York, with no human touch, by the end of 2017.
“all the way from LA to New York … by the end of next year”Self-driving