Unresolvable ●●●●●
The AI stock bubble will burst within about a year, i.e. by the end of September 2027 (moved up from his earlier 2028 base case).
“the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later.”AIMarkets
Michael Burry
Investor and founder of Scion Asset Management, known from The Big Short
Investor7predictions
2pending
1accurate
1late or partial
2inaccurate
38%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
After the 2022 inflation peak, the Fed will cut rates, the government will stimulate, and US inflation will spike again in this cycle.
“Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In the second half of 2023, US CPI inflation will fall sharply (possibly below zero) and the US will be in a recession by any definition.
“We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy is entering an extended recession lasting multiple years (through at least 2024).
“So we are really looking at an extended multiyear recession.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
Retail inventory gluts will bring US CPI disinflation later in 2022, leading the Fed to reverse its rate hikes and quantitative tightening.
“Deflationary pulses from this- -> disinflation in CPI later this year --> Fed reverses itself on rates and QT --> Cycles.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Speculative markets (crypto and meme stocks) are heading for a historic crash that will inflict huge losses on retail investors.
“All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes”MarketsCrypto
Pending ●●●●●
The passive index-fund "bubble" will end in a crash (no timeline given).
“Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be”Markets