Unresolvable ●●●●●
The AI stock bubble will burst within about a year, i.e. by the end of September 2027 (moved up from his earlier 2028 base case).
“the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later.”AIMarkets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Real GDP growth will regularly exceed 7% a year at some point between late 2029 and September 2031, driven by AI.
“We think that during the next three to five years, we will be seeing regularly and perhaps on average growth north of 7%”EconomyAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
Oil prices will fall to roughly $30-35 per barrel within the next few years (by about 2029).
“During the next few years, we would not be surprised to see the oil price drop back toward ~$30-35 per barrel”Energy
Pending ●●●●●
A major US dollar and sovereign-debt crisis, bigger than the 2008 financial crisis, will hit by the end of 2027.
“Gold and silver are warning about a bigger crisis that's gonna hit either later this year or maybe next year.”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will accelerate in the second half of 2026 compared with the first half.
“Thereafter, deregulation and other fiscal stimuli should turbocharge the impact of lower interest rates and accelerate GDP growth during the second half of 2026.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Silver (then about $75/oz) will break above $100 an ounce during 2026.
“Regardless of a potential correction, the price should break above $100 next year. This time it is different.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
During 2026 the Federal Reserve will expand its Treasury purchases beyond $40 billion a month.
“Sometime next year, maybe even the first half of next year, they're going to end up expanding that to more than $40 billion”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's total market value will exceed gold's by the end of 2035.
“There's no doubt in my mind, bitcoin will be a larger asset class than gold by the year 2035.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $250,000 during 2026.
“My target price for Bitcoin is $250,000 in 2026.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Major banks such as Citi and BNY Mellon will begin offering bitcoin custody during 2026.
“I think in 2026, we’ll start to see some of these major banks, like Citi and BNY Mellon, start to custody bitcoin,”BankingCrypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Within a year of October 2025, the US interest-rate debate will shift from rate cuts to rate rises.
“We are going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will rise about 30% a year to roughly $20 million per coin by 2045.
“My long-term forecast — as it goes up about 30% a year for the next 20 years — we’re headed toward $20 million bitcoin,”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin by the end of 2033 (four to eight years from October 2025).
“I don’t know why it won’t grind up to a million dollars a coin over the next four to eight years,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will be priced at about $150,000 at the end of 2025.
“Our expectation right now is [at the] end of the year it should be about $150,000.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
The 2030s will see a higher rate of Fortune 500 companies failing or dropping off the list than any previous decade.
“One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we've ever seen”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of the 2030s, almost every household (in developed markets) will have a humanoid robot at home.
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By mid-2030, AI will be able to do 80% of the work of any economically valuable job humans do.
“Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The spring-2025 US stock market correction will not become a bear market (a 20%+ closing decline in the S&P 500) and will turn into a broader bull market.
“we believe the current equity market correction is likely to stop short of a bear market and will evolve into a broader-based healthier bull market”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Silver will double to about $70 per ounce during 2025.
“I believe silver will 2X… possibly $70 this year.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2035, Bitcoin will exceed $1 million, gold will reach $30,000 and silver $3,000 per coin.
“I strongly believe, by 2035, that one Bitcoin will be over $ 1 million, Gold will be $30,000, and silver $3,000 a coin”MarketsCrypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at most once in 2025.
“I think if we're lucky we'll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get none”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045, the bipedal/humanoid robot industry will be larger than the auto industry.
“I think what I would say is this business of bipedal robots or some equivalent like that in various form factors and configurations will be larger than the auto industry within 20 years.”TechnologyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a "deflationary boom" (strong growth with falling prices) in the second half of 2025.
“In our view, the market today is discounting the last leg of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump Administration and the Powell Fed many more degrees of freedom than investors expect, setting up the US economy for a deflationary boom in the second half of this year.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The US will suffer a major government debt crisis within about three years (by early 2029 at the latest) unless the deficit is cut.
“I can't tell you exactly when it'll come, it's like the heart attack. You're getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will arrive sooner than his previous "two or three years" forecast, i.e. by the end of 2027.
“But now I have corrected that statement and I feel that AGI will actually arrive much sooner than that”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The biggest stock market crash in history will happen in February 2025.
“That crash will be in February 2025.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will trade in the $175,000 to $350,000 range during 2025.
“MY PRICE PREDICTION for BITCOIN 2025: $175,000 to $350,000”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Gold (then around $2,600/oz) will not fall back to $2,000 an ounce.
“I don't think gold's going back to $2,000,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates after its September 2024 cut.
“The good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will lose the November 2024 U.S. presidential election (Kamala Harris will win).
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”ElectionsPolitics