A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”EconomyAI
“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”AI
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
“It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.”EconomyAI
“Someone like a legal assistant or paralegal — they're not going to be needed for very long.”EconomyAI
“And they're about comparable with the experts by now. They'll soon be considerably better because they'll have had a lot more experience.”HealthAI
“But over the next 10 years, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a cyber attack that took down a Canadian bank.”BankingTechnology
“there's a good chance it'll be here in 10 years or less now.”AI
“we are not far from the world—I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”AI
“Possibly by 2026 or 2027 (and almost certainly no later than 2030), the capabilities of AI systems will be best thought of as akin to an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage—a "country of geniuses in a datacenter"”AI
“within three to five years we'll have systems that are a completely different paradigm.”AI
“I think within five years, nobody in their right mind would use them anymore,”AI
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.”AITechnology
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather.”Self-drivingAITechnology
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”AIEconomy
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”AITechnology
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI”AIHealth
“But it's not going to happen next year. It's not going to happen in two years,”AI
“I think next year we're going to go to a few billion, and then 2026, we may go to above 10 billion. And probably by 2027, their ambitions to build hundred billion dollar clusters. And I think all of that actually will happen.”AI
“And I think in another year we'll probably be at 90%. I mean, I don't know, but might even be less than that.”AI
“This might seem radical, but life expectancy increased almost 2x in the 20th century (from ~40 years to ~75), so it’s “on trend” that the “compressed 21st” would double it again to 150.”HealthAI
“my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”HealthAI
“So at that rate, in about 10 years, we'll be getting all of our energy that way, and it'll keep getting cheaper.”EnergyClimate
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
“By 2029, you'll get back a full year.”Health
“So the direction of inevitable direction of history is that the vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms.”AI
“all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more”AI