Cognitive scientist and AI critic; author of Rebooting AI
AI researcherCommentatorAcademicSort: newest · most important · target date
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.”AITechnology
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”AIEconomy
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather.”Self-drivingAITechnology
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI”AIHealth
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”AITechnology
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
“Fluent hallucinations will still be common, and easily induced”AITechnology
“GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”AITechnology