Gary Marcus

OpenAI's upcoming GPT-4 will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks.

“GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”

Said on

25 December 2022 · Substack post ahead of GPT-4's release (window inferred: GPT-4 was expected in 2023)

Source

What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4 · Marcus on AI (Substack)

Should come true

2023

How sure they sounded

one of "seven dark predictions"

Categories

AITechnology

Importance

3 of 5 · Capabilities of the leading AI model mattered to the whole AI industry.

Outcome

Accurate

OpenAI's own GPT-4 Technical Report (March 2023) described a model that is not fully reliable and has limitations like earlier GPT models. Nobody, OpenAI included, called GPT-4 an AGI able to take on arbitrary tasks.

Evidence:

• https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08774