Method
What counts as a prediction
A public statement by a named person about something that will or won't happen in the future, specific enough that someone could later check it. Opinions, wishes, goals ("we aim to…") and vague trends ("AI will matter") are left out.
What we record
- Exact quote, copied word for word from the source, with a link.
- Summary: one checkable sentence describing the claim.
- Date said and target date, with how precise the target was (day, month, year, decade, or none).
- Importance from 1 to 5: 1 is a minor or niche claim, 3 matters to an industry or country, 5 would change the world if true.
How outcomes are scored
- Accurate
- It happened, within the stated time.
- Right, but late
- It happened, but after the stated time.
- Partly right
- Some of it happened, or a weaker version of it did.
- Inaccurate
- The time has passed and it didn't happen, or the opposite happened.
- Unresolvable
- Too vague to judge, or the evidence can't settle it.
- Pending
- The time window hasn't closed yet.
Every score links to the evidence used. Scores are made with the help of an AI model; ones marked Verified have been checked by a person.