A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I stand by my predictions of Democratic wins in the Republican-held states of Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.”Elections
“They will push until they run out of men. Based on the Russian birth rate, that's about another five or six years.”Geopolitics
“But it does look like we're going to be bombing Iran within a couple of weeks.”GeopoliticsEnergy
“Gold and silver are warning about a bigger crisis that's gonna hit either later this year or maybe next year.”EconomyMarkets
“Regardless of a potential correction, the price should break above $100 next year. This time it is different.”Markets
“Sometime next year, maybe even the first half of next year, they're going to end up expanding that to more than $40 billion”EconomyMarkets
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
“My target price for Bitcoin is $250,000 in 2026.”Crypto
“Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.”EconomyPolitics
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
“I believe silver will 2X… possibly $70 this year.”Markets
“I strongly believe, by 2035, that one Bitcoin will be over $ 1 million, Gold will be $30,000, and silver $3,000 a coin”MarketsCrypto
“The actual Han ethnicity is going to vanish from the world by the end of this century.”Economy
“That crash will be in February 2025.”Markets
“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”Economy
“MY PRICE PREDICTION for BITCOIN 2025: $175,000 to $350,000”Crypto
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.”AITechnology
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather.”Self-drivingAITechnology
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”AIEconomy
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”AITechnology
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI”AIHealth
“I don't think gold's going back to $2,000,”Markets
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”ElectionsPolitics
“we are going to have a precedent-breaking election and Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States.”Elections
“I am confident Bitcoin will hit $350,000 sometime in 2024 but for it's only a target, a dream, and a wish.”Crypto
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
“BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024.”Crypto