Pending ●●●●●
AI chatbots like ChatGPT will not have large macroeconomic effects (e.g. on productivity) until the 2030s.
“ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”AI
Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning economist and former New York Times columnist
EconomistCommentator8predictions
1pending
4accurate
0late or partial
3inaccurate
57%accuracy
Predictions
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Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will get a soft landing: inflation will keep falling, and any recession will be mild.
“And my own prediction is indeed for a softish landing: Inflation does seem to be coming down, and while we might not completely avoid a recession, if we have one it will probably be mild.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will come down without an early-1980s-style deep recession.
“So it probably won't be necessary to put the economy through an '80s-style wringer to get inflation down.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Once the pandemic is brought under control in 2021, the US economy will rebound strongly ("come roaring back").
“And it’s also a good bet that when we do, the economy will come roaring back.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
A recession will begin in late 2019 or in 2020.
“quite a good chance that we will have a recession late this year or next year”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After Donald Trump's 2016 election win, stock markets will not recover from their election-night fall.
“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will exit the euro, very possibly by the end of June 2012.
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By around 2005 it will be clear that the Internet's economic impact has been no greater than that of the fax machine.
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”Technology