The US economy will get a soft landing: inflation will keep falling, and any recession will be mild.
Accurate ●●●●●
“And my own prediction is indeed for a softish landing: Inflation does seem to be coming down, and while we might not completely avoid a recession, if we have one it will probably be mild.”
- Said on
- 10 January 2023 · New York Times newsletter, Jan 10, 2023, quoted on Digby's Hullabaloo
- Source
- Is it too late for a soft landing? · Digby's Hullabaloo
- Should come true
- No date given
- How sure they sounded
- my own prediction; probably
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · A call on the path of the US economy through the Fed's tightening cycle.
Outcome
Accurate Happened 30 June 2023.
Inflation kept falling, with CPI at 3.0 percent year over year by June 2023, and the US avoided recession in 2023 (NBER has dated none after 2020). This is widely described as a soft landing.
- https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2023/07/inflation-slowed-down-to-3-in-june/
- https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
History
- 2026-10-16 23:02:47 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:03:27 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:53:14 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:54:10 · categorized by claude