A recession will begin in late 2019 or in 2020.
Unresolvable ●●●●●
“quite a good chance that we will have a recession late this year or next year”
- Said on
- 10 February 2019 · Remarks at the World Government Summit in Dubai (Fortune dates the remarks Sunday Feb 10; Arab News says Monday Feb 11)
- Source
- Looming world recession likely to hit by next year, Nobel Prize Laureate warns · Arab News
- Should come true
- 2020
- How sure they sounded
- quite a good chance
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 4 of 5 · A recession call for the US and world economy.
Outcome
Unresolvable
Krugman said there was "quite a good chance" of a recession, which is a possibility framing rather than a forecast, so the hedge rule makes it unresolvable. A recession did begin in February 2020 (NBER), but it was caused by COVID-19, not the headwinds he cited.
History
- 2026-10-16 23:02:46 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:03:26 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:52:48 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:53:16 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:54:12 · categorized by claude