Unresolvable ●●●●●
The AI stock bubble will burst within about a year, i.e. by the end of September 2027 (moved up from his earlier 2028 base case).
“the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later.”AIMarkets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will end 2026 at about 8,000.
“We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S & P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 10,000 by the end of 2029.
“Nevertheless, for now, we are sticking with our 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
After the early-2026 war-driven sell-off, the S&P 500 will return to a new all-time high.
“So I think stocks are now on the process to go back to their all-time highs.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
A major US dollar and sovereign-debt crisis, bigger than the 2008 financial crisis, will hit by the end of 2027.
“Gold and silver are warning about a bigger crisis that's gonna hit either later this year or maybe next year.”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Silver (then about $75/oz) will break above $100 an ounce during 2026.
“Regardless of a potential correction, the price should break above $100 next year. This time it is different.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
During 2026 the Federal Reserve will expand its Treasury purchases beyond $40 billion a month.
“Sometime next year, maybe even the first half of next year, they're going to end up expanding that to more than $40 billion”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
S&P 500 operating earnings per share will be about $310 for calendar 2026, up from $268 in 2025.
“We expect that S&P 500 companies' collective earnings per share will increase from $268 this year to $310 next year,”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by the end of 2026.
“We are still targeting 7700 by the end of next year.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Within a year of October 2025, the US interest-rate debate will shift from rate cuts to rate rises.
“We are going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates”EconomyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI will become a hyperscale company valued at more than $2 trillion.
“OpenAI is very likely going to be the world's next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company”MarketsAI
Pending ●●●●●
Spending on AI infrastructure will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion (per year) by 2030.
“We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”AIMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 6,600 by the end of 2025 (with 7,700 targeted for the end of 2026).
“This is why we're sticking with our S&P 500 targets — 6,600 by the end of 2025 and 7,700 by the end of next year.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
Excessive US government debt will cause a crisis ("crack") in the US bond market within six months to six years (by mid-2031).
“You are going to see a crack in the Bond market, OK? It is going to happen”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The spring-2025 US stock market correction will not become a bear market (a 20%+ closing decline in the S&P 500) and will turn into a broader bull market.
“we believe the current equity market correction is likely to stop short of a bear market and will evolve into a broader-based healthier bull market”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Silver will double to about $70 per ounce during 2025.
“I believe silver will 2X… possibly $70 this year.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2035, Bitcoin will exceed $1 million, gold will reach $30,000 and silver $3,000 per coin.
“I strongly believe, by 2035, that one Bitcoin will be over $ 1 million, Gold will be $30,000, and silver $3,000 a coin”MarketsCrypto
Pending ●●●●●
The US will suffer a major government debt crisis within about three years (by early 2029 at the latest) unless the deficit is cut.
“I can't tell you exactly when it'll come, it's like the heart attack. You're getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The biggest stock market crash in history will happen in February 2025.
“That crash will be in February 2025.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2025, profits from AI models (as opposed to chips) will remain modest or nonexistent.
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Gold (then around $2,600/oz) will not fall back to $2,000 an ounce.
“I don't think gold's going back to $2,000,”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
After the Fed's September 2024 rate cut, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields (then about 3.7% and 4.1%) will rise, possibly significantly, within about a year.
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,800 by the end of 2024.
“We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 8,000 by the end of the decade (end of 2029).
“We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
US Treasury bill rates will average well above 3% from 2024 through the end of 2029.
“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its March 2024 meeting.
“March is completely off the table.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US interest rates (Fed cuts) will come sooner and faster in 2024 than markets expected in January 2024 (about six cuts starting in March).
“We think interest rates are going to fall sooner and faster than most expect—and that should be supportive of valuations.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2024 will bring the biggest stock market crash of our lifetimes (he cited an 86% fall in the S&P 500).
“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes.”Markets
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The S&P 500 will reach 5,000 by the end of 2024 (from about 4,538 in November 2023).
“Broadly speaking, I actually agree with Savita Subramanian at Bank of America that we could go to 5000 on the S&P”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will soon fall sharply from its roughly $27,000 price in October 2023.
“I can't go out with bitcoin [BTC] because I can't be in something where Mr. Bitcoin is about to go down big”CryptoMarkets