Pending ●●●●●
Superhuman AI of the kind described in the AI 2027 scenario will not arrive by the end of 2027.
“I acknowledge that I personally have longer-than-2027 timelines”AI
Vitalik Buterin
Co-founder of Ethereum
Crypto figureTech leader9predictions
5pending
3accurate
0late or partial
1inaccurate
75%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
By November 2034, AI will greatly accelerate prediction markets and other "info finance" mechanisms, e.g. with AIs participating in many small markets.
“One technology that I expect will turbocharge info finance in the next decade is AI (whether LLMs or some future technology).”CryptoAIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
By May 2034, all Ethereum rollups will be ZK rollups (no optimistic rollups remaining).
“In the limit (5-10 years into the future), I expect that all rollups will be ZK rollups”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
AI chatbots' coding ability will keep improving quickly and their coding bugs will be ironed out over the following couple of years.
“AI is improving quickly and I expect it to keep improving further and ironing out bugs like this over time.”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Crypto prediction markets will grow steadily but will not have extreme multibillion-dollar breakout moments.
“I expect prediction markets to not make extreme multibillion-dollar splashes, but continue to steadily grow and become more useful over time.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Within about five years (by September 2027), major cryptocurrencies will become only about as volatile as gold or the stock market.
“I definitely think that in the medium-term future cryptocurrencies will settle down and be only about as volatile as gold or the stock market.”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Many more applications using ZK-SNARKs (zero-knowledge proofs) will be built in the few years after mid-2022.
“I expect to see many more applications using ZK-SNARKs, and eventually applications combining ZK-SNARKs with other forms of cryptography, to be built in the years to come.”TechnologyCrypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Prediction markets will become an increasingly important application on Ethereum in the years after 2021.
“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
The crypto market as a whole will not see another 1,000-fold price increase (to roughly $200 trillion) in the decade after September 2018.
“There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore.”CryptoMarkets