Pending ●●●●●
Within several years (by about 2030), most glasses people wear will be AI glasses.
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Unresolvable ●●●●●
AI will displace about half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within 1-5 years of his May 2025 warning (by mid-2030).
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”EconomyAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
There is a decent chance "powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most fields, working autonomously) arrives within 1-2 years (by early 2028), and a very strong chance it arrives within the next few years.
“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist no later than the end of 2027.
“I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year … No later than next year.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI's annual revenue will top $100 billion in 2027.
“How about '27?”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, AI models will be extraordinarily capable and able to do things humans themselves cannot do.
“by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”AI
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI will become a hyperscale company valued at more than $2 trillion.
“OpenAI is very likely going to be the world's next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company”MarketsAI
Pending ●●●●●
A large share of current phone and online customer-support workers will lose their jobs to AI (no window given; inferred about 10 years, to 2035).
“I'm confident that a lot of current customer support that happens over a phone or computer, those people will lose their jobs, and that'll be better done by an AI.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Spending on AI infrastructure will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion (per year) by 2030.
“We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”AIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Context-aware AI glasses will become people's primary computing devices, replacing phones (no date given; inferred long-run window of about 10 years, to 2035).
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Robotaxi service will cover areas home to half the US population by the end of 2025.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”Self-drivingAI
Pending ●●●●●
Superhuman AI of the kind described in the AI 2027 scenario will not arrive by the end of 2027.
“I acknowledge that I personally have longer-than-2027 timelines”AI
Pending ●●●●●
The 2030s will see a higher rate of Fortune 500 companies failing or dropping off the list than any previous decade.
“One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we've ever seen”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of the 2030s, almost every household (in developed markets) will have a humanoid robot at home.
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By mid-2030, AI will be able to do 80% of the work of any economically valuable job humans do.
“Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it”AIEconomy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2027, robots that can do useful tasks in the real world will arrive.
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, AI systems capable of producing genuinely novel insights will arrive.
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By late October 2026, most of the code for Meta's AI (Llama) research efforts will be written by AI.
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By about April 2026, roughly half of Meta's (Llama) software development will be done by AI rather than people.
“our bet is sort of that in the next year... maybe half the development is going to be done by AI as opposed to people”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence, as smart as the smartest human experts across fields, will exist by April 2030.
“within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence, AGI”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By April 2026, the vast majority of human programmers will have been replaced by AI programmers.
“So we believe as an industry that in the next one year the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.”AIEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
By April 2026, AI systems will perform at the level of top graduate mathematics students.
“We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Humanoid robots will be in widespread use (starting in factories) within a few years, before 2030.
“when, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, which is not five years away. This is not five-years-away problem, this is a few-years-away problem.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045, the bipedal/humanoid robot industry will be larger than the auto industry.
“I think what I would say is this business of bipedal robots or some equivalent like that in various form factors and configurations will be larger than the auto industry within 20 years.”TechnologyAI
Partly right ●●●●●
AI will be writing 90% of all code within three to six months (by September 2025), and may be writing essentially all code within twelve months.
“we are not far from the world—I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI systems with capabilities akin to a "country of geniuses in a datacenter" will exist possibly by 2026-2027 and almost certainly no later than 2030.
“Possibly by 2026 or 2027 (and almost certainly no later than 2030), the capabilities of AI systems will be best thought of as akin to an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage—a "country of geniuses in a datacenter"”AI
Accurate ●●●●●
Despite AI advances, people in 2025 will spend their time mostly the same way they did in 2024.
“Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024.”AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2025, an OpenAI model will rank as the world's number one competitive programmer.
“I think our internal benchmark is now around 50, and maybe we'll hit number one by the end of this year.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2035, AI will make expert-quality medical advice and tutoring (the expertise of a great doctor or teacher) free and commonplace.
“with AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace — great medical advice, great tutoring,”AIHealth
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will arrive sooner than his previous "two or three years" forecast, i.e. by the end of 2027.
“But now I have corrected that statement and I feel that AGI will actually arrive much sooner than that”AI