Eric Schmidt

By April 2026, AI systems will perform at the level of top graduate mathematics students.

“We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs.”

Said on

10 April 2025 · SCSP NatSec Tech podcast interview with Jeanne Meserve

Source

Quote Origin: The Programming Occupation Will Become Extinct · Quote Investigator

Should come true

Apr 2026

How sure they sounded

we also believe

Categories

AI

Importance

3 of 5 · Graduate-level AI mathematics would matter to science and research across fields.

Outcome

Partly right

Kept as Schmidt's own forecast: in the same passage he says "we believe", "there's lots of reasons to think this is going to happen" and "this is the consensus", endorsing rather than merely reporting it. By April 2026 AI had reached IMO gold-medal level (July 2025) and solved some research-level problems, but it was not reliably at the level of top graduate mathematicians; Epoch's FrontierMath Erdos benchmark later showed open research problems still almost entirely unsolved. A weaker version happened, so partial.

Evidence:

• https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/
• https://epoch.ai/latest/announcing-frontiermath-erdos
• https://quoteinvestigator.com/2025/04/24/program-extinct/