Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2026.
“But I would guess that by the first quarter of next year, we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace,”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
The 2025 US tariffs will cause only a one-time rise in the price level, not a persistent increase in inflation.
“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
US goods inflation will rise further over summer 2025 as tariffs pass through to consumer prices.
“We've had goods inflation just moving up a bit, and, of course, we expect--as you--as you point out, we, we do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
Because of Trump's tariffs, US year-over-year inflation will rise to at least 3% in 2025.
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The 2025 US tariffs will raise US inflation and slow US economic growth during 2025.
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession as a result of the 2025 Trump tariffs, adding about 2 million unemployed.
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”EconomyPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation will get back down to the Fed's 2% goal within one to two years, i.e. by end of 2026.
“take another year or two from here, but I, I'm confident that that's the path we're on.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
After the Fed's September 2024 rate cut, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields (then about 3.7% and 4.1%) will rise, possibly significantly, within about a year.
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”MarketsEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation will move back down over the course of 2024 from its early-2024 level (about 2.7% headline, 2.8% core PCE).
“I think--I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down. That's, that's my forecast.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Generative AI will not produce a productivity boom (a sharp, sustained jump in US productivity growth) by March 2029.
“I don’t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years”AIEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
Some smaller or mid-sized US banks with heavy commercial real estate exposure will fail, but no large banks.
“There will be bank failures, but not the big banks.”Banking
Pending ●●●●●
US Treasury bill rates will average well above 3% from 2024 through the end of 2029.
“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its March 2024 meeting.
“March is completely off the table.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more after its July 2023 hike, within the next few months (by end of January 2024).
“My best guess would be that we’re going to need more interest-rate increasing”MarketsEconomy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
Absent congressional action, the US Treasury will run out of cash and extraordinary measures by early June 2023, possibly as early as June 1.
“our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time.”PoliticsEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
The March 2023 bank failures (SVB, Signature) will tighten credit conditions for US households and businesses in 2023, weighing on demand, the labor market and inflation.
“the events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening credit conditions for households and businesses and thereby weigh on demand, on the labor market, and on inflation.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve's policy rate will peak at about 5.5% or a little above in the 2022-2023 hiking cycle.
“My best guess would probably be 5.5% or a little above 5.5%. But 6% would not surprise me greatly.”MarketsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
A US recession will begin in 2023.
“It should come as no surprise that many economists, including me, expect a recession to begin in 2023.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will be much lower by the end of 2023 than in late 2022.
“Well, I believe by the end of next year you will see much lower inflation. if there's not-- an unanticipated shock.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will rise toward 6% in a recession during 2023.
“The unemployment is likely to rise towards 6%”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The British pound will fall below parity with both the US dollar and the euro (inferred window: within about a year, by September 2023).
“My guess is that [the] pound will find its way below parity with both the dollar and euro”MarketsEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
Bringing US inflation down will require a sustained period of below-trend economic growth and some softening of the labor market.
“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation will not be contained unless unemployment stays above 5% for about five years (to mid-2027), or a comparable amount of slack occurs (e.g. two years at 7.5% or one year at 10%).
“We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession by June 2024.
“And I think, given where we have gotten to, it's more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years.”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The Fed will bring inflation down without causing a recession or a large rise in unemployment (a soft or "softish" landing).
“I think we have a good chance to have a soft or softish landing or outcome, if you will.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve's policy rate (then 0.25-0.5%) will rise to the 4-5% range by about March 2024.
“My sense of this is that given the likely paths of inflation, we’re likely to have a need for nominal interest rates, basic Fed interest rates, to rise to the 4 percent to 5 percent range over the next couple of years.”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will not enter a recession in the year after March 16, 2022.
“in my view, the probability of a recession within the next year is not particularly elevated.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
From 2022 to 2025, US unemployment and inflation will both average above 5 percent (stagflation).
“The Fed's current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5 percent over the next few years”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Housing (shelter) costs alone will add more than 2 percentage points to US core CPI inflation in 2022.
“housing alone will likely be enough to push core CPI above 2 percent in 2022”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US Omicron COVID-19 wave will likely peak by the end of January 2022.
“I would imagine, given the size of our country and the diversity of vaccination versus not vaccination, that it likely will be more than a couple of weeks, probably by the end of January, I would think”Health