Bringing US inflation down will require a sustained period of below-trend economic growth and some softening of the labor market.
Partly right ●●●●●
“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions.”
- Said on
- 26 August 2022 · Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium speech, "Monetary Policy and Price Stability"
- Source
- Speech by Chair Powell on monetary policy and price stability · Federal Reserve
- Should come true
- No date given
- How sure they sounded
- is likely to; very likely
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · Defined the expected cost of the Fed's disinflation for the US economy.
Outcome
Partly right
Inflation fell sharply (PCE 2.6% by Dec 2024) without the predicted sustained below-trend growth: real GDP grew 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, above estimates of trend. The labor-market softening he called "very likely" did happen modestly, so this is partial. Powell acknowledged in Dec 2023 that growth had surprised to the upside.
- https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2024-advance-estimate
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231213.pdf
History
- 2026-10-16 23:10:26 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:11:50 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:12:16 · updated by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:54:02 · categorized by claude