The 2025 US tariffs will cause only a one-time rise in the price level, not a persistent increase in inflation.
“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”EconomyPolitics
Chair of the US Federal Reserve
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“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”EconomyPolitics
“We've had goods inflation just moving up a bit, and, of course, we expect--as you--as you point out, we, we do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.”Economy
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”EconomyPolitics
“take another year or two from here, but I, I'm confident that that's the path we're on.”Economy
“I think--I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down. That's, that's my forecast.”Economy
“There will be bank failures, but not the big banks.”Banking
“the events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening credit conditions for households and businesses and thereby weigh on demand, on the labor market, and on inflation.”BankingEconomy
“Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions.”Economy
“I think we have a good chance to have a soft or softish landing or outcome, if you will.”Economy
“in my view, the probability of a recession within the next year is not particularly elevated.”Economy
“And I think this stuff will work itself out over the course of next year.”Economy
“So you put all those together, I would expect that we would see strong job creation building up over the summer and going into--going into the fall.”Economy
“In an episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not the same thing as, and is not likely to lead to, persistently higher year-over-year inflation into the future”Economy
“my expectation--and I think many people have the expectation that the second half of next year should--the economy should be performing strongly.”EconomyHealth
“I do know that the U.S. economy is strong, and we will get to the other side of this. And I fully expect it will return to solid growth and a solid labor market as well.”EconomyHealth