Jerome Powell

The US economy will not enter a recession in the year after March 16, 2022.

“in my view, the probability of a recession within the next year is not particularly elevated.”

Said on

16 March 2022 · FOMC press conference (first rate hike of the 2022 cycle)

Source

Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, March 16, 2022 · Federal Reserve

Should come true

16 Mar 2023

How sure they sounded

in my view... not particularly elevated

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Recession risk for the US economy as the Fed began its fastest hiking cycle in decades.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 16 March 2023.

The NBER business-cycle chronology records no US recession after the April 2020 trough, so no recession began in the year after March 2022. 2022 real GDP still grew, despite two small negative quarters in H1 2022.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions