Jerome Powell

The Fed will bring inflation down without causing a recession or a large rise in unemployment (a soft or "softish" landing).

“I think we have a good chance to have a soft or softish landing or outcome, if you will.”

Said on

4 May 2022 · FOMC press conference

Source

Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, May 4, 2022 · Federal Reserve

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

I think we have a good chance

Categories

Economy

Importance

4 of 5 · Whether the US disinflation of 2022-24 caused a recession mattered for the world economy and markets.

Outcome

Unresolvable

Powell said "we have a good chance" of a soft or softish landing, which is a possibility framing, so under the hedge rule it is unresolvable (same treatment as other "good chance" statements). For the record, PCE inflation fell from about 7% to 2.6% by end-2024 with no NBER-dated recession.

Evidence:

• https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2024
• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions