Pending ●●●●●
Major banks such as Citi and BNY Mellon will begin offering bitcoin custody during 2026.
“I think in 2026, we’ll start to see some of these major banks, like Citi and BNY Mellon, start to custody bitcoin,”BankingCrypto
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A cyberattack will take down a Canadian bank by April 2035.
“But over the next 10 years, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a cyber attack that took down a Canadian bank.”BankingTechnology
Partly right ●●●●●
Some smaller or mid-sized US banks with heavy commercial real estate exposure will fail, but no large banks.
“There will be bank failures, but not the big banks.”Banking
Accurate ●●●●●
After JPMorgan's First Republic takeover, no further large US bank failures will follow from the 2023 regional-bank crisis, at most another smaller one.
“There may be another smaller one, but this pretty much resolves them all,”BankingEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
The March 2023 bank failures (SVB, Signature) will tighten credit conditions for US households and businesses in 2023, weighing on demand, the labor market and inflation.
“the events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening credit conditions for households and businesses and thereby weigh on demand, on the labor market, and on inflation.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation (CPI then about 6%) will rise much higher because of the March 2023 bank bailouts (read as within about a year).
“Rate hikes don't matter. Inflation is headed much higher, thanks to bank bailouts”EconomyBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The 2023 banking crisis (after Silicon Valley Bank's failure) will be worse than the 2008 financial crisis.
“One reason we had the 2008 financial crisis was too much government regulation. That's why this crisis will be worse.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will begin cutting the federal funds rate by mid-2023 (June 30, 2023).
“I think the Fed will start bringing down the funds rate by mid-year 2023.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US interest rates will rise from about 2.5% to the higher end of a 4.5%-6% range in this tightening cycle.
“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range)”EconomyBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The June 2022 low was the bottom of the 2022 bear market, and the Fed would pivot away from tightening within about two months (by end of September 2022).
“This is the August 1982 moment, bottom is in but Fed is two months away from a pivot”MarketsBanking
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2020 a financial crisis will occur, followed by a global recession.
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”EconomyBanking
Pending ●●●●●
There will not be another major financial crisis in the lifetimes of Yellen and her audience.
“I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September 2015 meeting.
“I think after the Fed moves—and I do think they are going to move in September—and the world doesn't end”BankingEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, 2 billion people who were unbanked in 2015 will be storing money and making payments with mobile phones.
“By 2030, 2 billion people who don't have a bank account today will be storing money and making payments with their phones.”BankingTechnologyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
About half of the 800-plus troubled small and medium-sized US banks (roughly 400 banks) will fail in the following few years.
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2010-2012 will bring the worst economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s, worse than 2008.
“2010 to 2012 will bring on the greatest economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s”EconomyBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Bear Stearns rescue in March 2008 marked the bottom of the U.S. stock market's decline, with no lower lows to follow.
“That $30 billion from the Fed will turn out to be a small price to pay for a bottom in the stock market after the beating we’ve taken over the past eight months.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bear Stearns was not in trouble and would not fail (said March 11, 2008).
“Bear Stearns is not in trouble. It's more likely to be taken over.”BankingMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Goldman Sachs stock will finish 2008 at $300 a share.
“Goldman Sachs makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction — an inevitability.”MarketsBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut the federal funds rate to about 3.5% and then begin raising it in the second half of 2008.
“I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Lenders and the government will tighten credit standards and US home prices will fall sharply from their highs.
“You're going to start to see both the government and the lenders re-imposing lending standards and tightening up on credit. And these sky-high real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to earth.”EconomyBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
US house prices will fall a long way and homebuilding will go through a prolonged slump after the 2006 peak.
“If history is any guide, housing prices have got a long way to fall and the housing industry is going to go through a long drought.”EconomyMarketsBanking