Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI's annual revenue will top $100 billion in 2027.
“How about '27?”AIEconomy
Sam Altman
CEO of OpenAI
Tech leaderBusiness leader16predictions
8pending
3accurate
1late or partial
0inaccurate
88%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, AI models will be extraordinarily capable and able to do things humans themselves cannot do.
“by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”AI
Pending ●●●●●
A large share of current phone and online customer-support workers will lose their jobs to AI (no window given; inferred about 10 years, to 2035).
“I'm confident that a lot of current customer support that happens over a phone or computer, those people will lose their jobs, and that'll be better done by an AI.”AIEconomy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2027, robots that can do useful tasks in the real world will arrive.
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, AI systems capable of producing genuinely novel insights will arrive.
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2025, an OpenAI model will rank as the world's number one competitive programmer.
“I think our internal benchmark is now around 50, and maybe we'll hit number one by the end of this year.”AI
Accurate ●●●●●
Despite AI advances, people in 2025 will spend their time mostly the same way they did in 2024.
“Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Helion will soon (within about two years, by early 2027) demonstrate net-gain fusion, showing that fusion works.
“Soon. Well, soon there will be a demonstration of net-gain fusion. … But I would expect Helion will show you that fusion works soon.”EnergyTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will be developed during Donald Trump's second presidential term (by January 20, 2029).
“I think AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
In 2025, the first AI agents will "join the workforce" and materially change companies' output.
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents "join the workforce" and materially change the output of companies.”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Within about two years of September 2024, AI models will act as autonomous personal assistants that carry out specific tasks on users' behalf.
“AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf.”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
Superintelligence will exist within a few thousand days of September 2024 (roughly by the early 2030s).
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
A one-person company will reach a $1 billion valuation, enabled by AI.
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By 2031, AI-driven machines will be doing assembly-line work (and possibly serving as companions).
“In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Within five years of March 2021, AI programs will be reading legal documents and giving medical advice.
“In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.”AIHealth
Right, but late ●●●●●
Self-driving cars will be available within three to four years of October 2015 (by October 2019).
“Self-driving cars are going to get here much faster than people think”Self-drivingAI