Sam Altman

Self-driving cars will be available within three to four years of October 2015 (by October 2019).

“Self-driving cars are going to get here much faster than people think”

Said on

6 October 2015 · Onstage with Elon Musk at the Vanity Fair New Establishment Summit. TechCrunch reports that he put the timeframe at three to four years (reporter's paraphrase; the quote itself gives no date).

Source

Elon Musk, Sam Altman Predict Self-Driving Cars Will Be On The Road In Just A Few Years · TechCrunch

Should come true

2019

How sure they sounded

"going to" (stated as fact)

Categories

Self-drivingAI

Importance

3 of 5 · Driverless cars would transform the auto and transport industries.

Outcome

Right, but late Happened 8 October 2020.

By October 2019 no fully driverless service was open to the public (Waymo One, launched Dec 2018, still used safety drivers for public riders). Waymo opened fully driverless rides to the general public in Phoenix in October 2020, about a year after the 3-4 year window, so late.

Evidence:

• https://waymo.com/blog/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-driverless/
• https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/8/21507814/waymo-driverless-cars-service-phoenix-arizona