Sam Altman

Superintelligence will exist within a few thousand days of September 2024 (roughly by the early 2030s).

“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”

Said on

23 September 2024 · Essay "The Intelligence Age" on ia.samaltman.com. Target date approximates "a few thousand days" (~3,000 days).

Source

The Intelligence Age · Sam Altman

Should come true

2030s

How sure they sounded

"It is possible"; "it may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there"

Categories

AI

Importance

5 of 5 · Superintelligence would be a civilization-scale event.

Outcome

Unresolvable

The timed part is framed as a possibility ("It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days... it may take longer"). Only the untimed "we'll get there" is confident. Under the hedge rule the dated claim is not a forecast.

Evidence:

• https://ia.samaltman.com/