Pending ●●●●●
Tariff revenue will substantially replace the US federal income tax.
“Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”EconomyPolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Within several years (by about 2030), most glasses people wear will be AI glasses.
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist no later than the end of 2027.
“I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year … No later than next year.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's total market value will exceed gold's by the end of 2035.
“There's no doubt in my mind, bitcoin will be a larger asset class than gold by the year 2035.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI's annual revenue will top $100 billion in 2027.
“How about '27?”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Major banks such as Citi and BNY Mellon will begin offering bitcoin custody during 2026.
“I think in 2026, we’ll start to see some of these major banks, like Citi and BNY Mellon, start to custody bitcoin,”BankingCrypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will rise about 30% a year to roughly $20 million per coin by 2045.
“My long-term forecast — as it goes up about 30% a year for the next 20 years — we’re headed toward $20 million bitcoin,”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin by the end of 2033 (four to eight years from October 2025).
“I don’t know why it won’t grind up to a million dollars a coin over the next four to eight years,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will be priced at about $150,000 at the end of 2025.
“Our expectation right now is [at the] end of the year it should be about $150,000.”Crypto
Partly right ●●●●●
All hostages held in Gaza will be released very soon (within days) after Israel and Hamas agreed to phase one of the peace plan on October 8, 2025.
“means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon”Geopolitics
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, AI models will be extraordinarily capable and able to do things humans themselves cannot do.
“by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”AI
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI will become a hyperscale company valued at more than $2 trillion.
“OpenAI is very likely going to be the world's next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company”MarketsAI
Pending ●●●●●
A large share of current phone and online customer-support workers will lose their jobs to AI (no window given; inferred about 10 years, to 2035).
“I'm confident that a lot of current customer support that happens over a phone or computer, those people will lose their jobs, and that'll be better done by an AI.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Spending on AI infrastructure will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion (per year) by 2030.
“We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”AIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Context-aware AI glasses will become people's primary computing devices, replacing phones (no date given; inferred long-run window of about 10 years, to 2035).
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Robotaxi service will cover areas home to half the US population by the end of 2025.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”Self-drivingAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2027, robots that can do useful tasks in the real world will arrive.
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, AI systems capable of producing genuinely novel insights will arrive.
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Excessive US government debt will cause a crisis ("crack") in the US bond market within six months to six years (by mid-2031).
“You are going to see a crack in the Bond market, OK? It is going to happen”MarketsEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By late October 2026, most of the code for Meta's AI (Llama) research efforts will be written by AI.
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By about April 2026, roughly half of Meta's (Llama) software development will be done by AI rather than people.
“our bet is sort of that in the next year... maybe half the development is going to be done by AI as opposed to people”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence, as smart as the smartest human experts across fields, will exist by April 2030.
“within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence, AGI”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By April 2026, the vast majority of human programmers will have been replaced by AI programmers.
“So we believe as an industry that in the next one year the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.”AIEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
By April 2026, AI systems will perform at the level of top graduate mathematics students.
“We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs.”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The 2025 US tariff upheaval will push the US economy into a recession.
“I think that's probably a likely outcome”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The April 2025 US tariffs will raise US inflation over the following year.
“The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession,”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The April 2025 tariffs will bring a large return of manufacturing jobs and factories to the United States.
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Humanoid robots will be in widespread use (starting in factories) within a few years, before 2030.
“when, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, which is not five years away. This is not five-years-away problem, this is a few-years-away problem.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The United States will acquire Greenland (gain sovereignty or control of it) by the end of Trump's second term in January 2029.
“One way or the other, we're going to get it”Geopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Despite AI advances, people in 2025 will spend their time mostly the same way they did in 2024.
“Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024.”AI