A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“I stand by my predictions of Democratic wins in the Republican-held states of Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.”Elections
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.”AITechnology
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather.”Self-drivingAITechnology
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”AIEconomy
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”AITechnology
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI”AIHealth
“we are going to have a precedent-breaking election and Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States.”Elections
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
“Fluent hallucinations will still be common, and easily induced”AITechnology
“GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”AITechnology
“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House.”Elections
“I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment”Politics
“So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory”Elections
“Even if I am being conservative, I don't see how Obama can lose,”Elections
“the Democrats will recapture the White House next fall”Elections
“Election 2000: The Keys Point to Gore.”Elections