Allan Lichtman

Al Gore will win the 2000 US presidential election (Lichtman's Keys model was then described as forecasting the popular-vote winner).

“Election 2000: The Keys Point to Gore.”

Said on

1 October 2000 · Title of Lichtman's own article in Social Education, vol. 64 no. 6 (October 2000)

Source

Election 2000: The Keys Point to Gore. · ERIC (Social Education)

Should come true

7 Nov 2000

How sure they sounded

The Keys Point to

Categories

Elections

Importance

4 of 5 · US presidential election outcome has major global consequences.

Outcome

Partly right Happened 7 November 2000.

Gore won the national popular vote but George W. Bush won the Electoral College and the presidency after the Florida recount dispute. The article's abstract says Gore "will be elected", while Lichtman then described his model as forecasting the popular vote, so the wording is ambiguous; scored cautiously as partial rather than accurate.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election
• https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ652900