Jerome Powell

Some smaller or mid-sized US banks with heavy commercial real estate exposure will fail, but no large banks.

“There will be bank failures, but not the big banks.”

Said on

7 March 2024 · Testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, discussing commercial real estate exposure

Source

Jerome Powell on commercial real estate: 'there will be bank failures' · Fortune

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

There will be (stated as fact)

Categories

Banking

Importance

2 of 5 · Concerns losses in the regional banking sector rather than a systemic crisis.

Outcome

Partly right

Several small US banks failed after March 2024 (e.g., Republic First in April 2024, Santa Anna National Bank in 2025, and multiple in 2026), and no big bank failed. The FDIC list doesn't show that commercial real estate caused these failures, and some had other causes (e.g., fraud), so partial is the cautious call.

Evidence:

• https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list