Pending ●●●●●
By 2029 medical research will add at least one year of remaining life expectancy for every year that passes (longevity escape velocity).
“By 2029, you'll get back a full year.”Health
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist and inventor; author of The Singularity Is Near
FuturistAI researcher8predictions
4pending
1accurate
1late or partial
2inaccurate
38%accuracy
Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
During the 2030s, nanorobots sent into the human brain will provide full-immersion virtual reality and connect the neocortex to the cloud.
“In the 2030s we are going to send nanorobots into the brain that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045 humans will merge with AI and multiply their effective intelligence a billionfold (the Singularity).
“I have set the date 2045 for the 'Singularity' which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
An AI will pass a valid Turing test, achieving human-level intelligence, by 2029.
“2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence.”AI
Accurate ●●●●●
Conventional silicon computers will reach about 20 million billion operations per second (a high estimate of human-brain capacity) before 2020.
“achieving even a conservatively high estimate of the information processing capacity of the human brain … will be achieved by conventional silicon circuits prior to 2020.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will expand continuously, without recession, from 1999 through 2009.
“Despite occasional corrections, the ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion and prosperity”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2009 most text will be created by speaking (speech recognition) rather than typing.
“Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking.”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 supercomputers will reach at least 20 petaflops, matching the hardware capacity of the human brain.
“Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain … 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops).”Technology