Economist and NYU professor emeritus, known as "Dr. Doom"
EconomistCommentatorSort: newest · most important · target date
“In the baseline case, the US will suffer a growth recession (meaning below-trend GDP growth) for a few months, followed by a recovery and a gradual decline in the inflation rate toward the US Federal Reserve's 2% target.”Economy
“To be sure, US inflation will surge above 4% this year.”EconomyMarkets
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
“The "Department of Government Efficiency," an external advisory committee led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy (two major Trump campaign donors), will come nowhere close to cutting the federal budget by $2 trillion, as originally promised.”PoliticsEconomy
“Growth may remain above potential – given strong tailwinds – but it will be lower than in 2024.”Economy
“China will most likely implement a moderate stimulus that is sufficient to get growth slightly above 4% in 2024.”Economy
“The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and most other major central banks will have to raise rates even more before they can pause.”EconomyMarkets
“That means there will be a hard landing - a deep, protracted recession - on top of a severe financial crisis.”EconomyMarketsBanking
“It's not going to be a short and shallow recession; it's going to be severe, long, and ugly,”EconomyMarkets
“Oil and natural gas prices will spike further – to well above $100 per barrel – as will many other commodity prices”EnergyGeopolitics
“They are going to postpone any finishing of tapering or raising rates.”EconomyMarkets
“an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade”Economy
“Indeed Bitcoin is now down below 10k. Has lost a third of its value in less than a week. Still a long way to less than zero as its true value is negative not zero given its toxic externalities! It will get to zero in due time.”CryptoMarkets
“XRP, all the other ones, they're all going bust.”CryptoMarkets
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”EconomyBanking
“But we're not going to go back to a world of... $100 per barrel.”EnergyMarkets
“I think that, over the next year and a half, gradually all [oil] prices are going to go higher.”EnergyMarkets
“and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015”Markets
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”Economy
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
“My main scenario is that it's highly likely it goes to 600 or below,”Markets
“U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.”Economy
“U.S. Hard Landing and Recession Steaming Ahead: Now More Likely Than a 70% Probability”Economy