Nouriel Roubini

The US will enter a severe, long recession starting around end-2022 and lasting through 2023.

“It's not going to be a short and shallow recession; it's going to be severe, long, and ugly,”

Said on

20 September 2022 · Bloomberg interview, Sept 2022; he expected the US recession by end-2022 lasting through 2023, with the S&P 500 falling 30-40%

Source

'Dr. Doom' Roubini predicts a long, ugly recession · Fortune

Should come true

2023

How sure they sounded

it's going to be

Categories

EconomyMarkets

Importance

4 of 5 · A severe US recession would spread globally.

Outcome

Inaccurate

The US had no recession in 2022-2023: the NBER dated no business-cycle peak after February 2020, and real GDP grew about 2.5% in 2023. The S&P 500 also did not fall 30-40% and rose about 24% in 2023.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
• https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product