Nouriel Roubini

The US economy will suffer a hard landing and fall into recession, driven by a housing bust (probability above 70%).

“U.S. Hard Landing and Recession Steaming Ahead: Now More Likely Than a 70% Probability”

Said on

21 September 2006 · Title of a Roubini blog post (RGE Monitor), Sept 2006, as cited by Salon; same month as his IMF speech warning of a housing-led recession

Source

Salon: Roubini · Salon

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

More likely than a 70% probability

Categories

Economy

Importance

4 of 5 · A US recession triggered by a housing bust became the 2008 global financial crisis.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 1 December 2007.

The NBER dated a US business-cycle peak in December 2007, beginning the Great Recession, which was triggered by the housing bust Roubini described. He expected it somewhat sooner (in 2007), but the post gave no explicit window and the predicted housing-led recession did occur.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession