Nouriel Roubini

China's economy will suffer a hard landing (a sharp growth collapse) sometime after 2013.

“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”

Said on

13 June 2011 · Remarks at a financial conference in Singapore (Reuters)

Source

'Meaningful probability' of a China hard landing — Roubini · NBC News / Reuters

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

a meaningful probability

Categories

Economy

Importance

4 of 5 · A Chinese hard landing would hit global growth and commodity markets.

Outcome

Unresolvable

The statement was framed as a "meaningful probability", which is a possibility, not a forecast, so under the hedge rule it is unresolvable. For the record, China never had a hard landing after 2013: growth slowed gradually from about 7.8% to about 6% by 2019.

Evidence:

• https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN