Predictions
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Pending ●●●●●
“We are going to have AI systems that have humanlike and human-level intelligence, but they’re not going to be built on LLMs, and it’s not going to happen next year or two years from now.”
Said 22 Jan 2026 · Target: 2028
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“I think within five years, nobody in their right mind would use them anymore,”
Said 23 Jan 2025 · Target: 2030
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“But it's not going to happen next year. It's not going to happen in two years,”
Said 28 Nov 2024 · Target: Nov 2026
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“So the direction of inevitable direction of history is that the vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms.”
Said 7 Mar 2024 · Target: 2030s
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more”
Said 7 Mar 2024 · Target: 2030s
AI
Pending ●●●●●
“The "hard take-off" scenario is utterly impossible.”
Said 25 Apr 2023 · Target: 2030s
AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“If you train a machine as powerful as could be…your GPT-5000, it's never gonna learn about this.”
Said 22 Jan 2022 · Target: No date given
AI