Pending ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession as a result of the 2025 Trump tariffs, adding about 2 million unemployed.
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”Economy
Larry Summers
Economist; former US Treasury Secretary and Harvard president
EconomistPolicymaker12predictions
3pending
4accurate
0late or partial
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Predictions
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Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its March 2024 meeting.
“March is completely off the table.”Markets
Pending ●●●●●
US Treasury bill rates will average well above 3% from 2024 through the end of 2029.
“One would want to be guessing that Treasury bill rates will be averaging well above 3% through the rest of this decade”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
A US recession will begin in 2023.
“It should come as no surprise that many economists, including me, expect a recession to begin in 2023.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will rise toward 6% in a recession during 2023.
“The unemployment is likely to rise towards 6%”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation will not be contained unless unemployment stays above 5% for about five years (to mid-2027), or a comparable amount of slack occurs (e.g. two years at 7.5% or one year at 10%).
“We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession by June 2024.
“And I think, given where we have gotten to, it's more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
From 2022 to 2025, US unemployment and inflation will both average above 5 percent (stagflation).
“The Fed's current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5 percent over the next few years”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Housing (shelter) costs alone will add more than 2 percentage points to US core CPI inflation in 2022.
“housing alone will likely be enough to push core CPI above 2 percent in 2022”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent by the end of May 2022.
“Job openings are at record levels, and unemployment may well fall below 4 percent in the next 12 months.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus will set off US inflation pressures of a kind not seen in a generation (roughly since the early 1990s or before).
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
If Trump wins the 2016 election, a protracted US recession will begin within about 18 months of his taking office (by mid-2018).
“If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.”Economy