Larry Summers

Housing (shelter) costs alone will add more than 2 percentage points to US core CPI inflation in 2022.

“housing alone will likely be enough to push core CPI above 2 percent in 2022”

Said on

7 February 2022 · Washington Post op-ed, "On inflation, we can learn from the mistakes of the past — or repeat them"

Source

On inflation, we can learn from the mistakes of the past — or repeat them · Lawrence H. Summers (reprint of Washington Post column)

Should come true

2022

How sure they sounded

will likely

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · US core inflation path drove Federal Reserve policy.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2022.

In the 12 months to December 2022, shelter prices rose 7.5% and core CPI rose 5.7% (BLS). Shelter is roughly 40% of core CPI, so it added about 3 percentage points to core inflation, above the 2-point threshold.

Evidence:

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01122023.htm