Larry Summers

The US unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent by the end of May 2022.

“Job openings are at record levels, and unemployment may well fall below 4 percent in the next 12 months.”

Said on

24 May 2021 · Washington Post op-ed, "The inflation risk is real"

Source

The inflation risk is real · Lawrence H. Summers (reprint of Washington Post column)

Should come true

May 2022

How sure they sounded

may well

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Speed of the US labor-market recovery after COVID mattered nationally.

Outcome

Unresolvable

The quote says unemployment "may well fall below 4 percent", which is a possibility framing ("may"), so under the hedge rule it is unresolvable rather than credited. For the record, BLS unemployment did fall to 3.9% in December 2021, inside the 12-month window.

Evidence:

• https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01072022.htm