A US recession will begin in 2023.

Inaccurate ●●●●●

“It should come as no surprise that many economists, including me, expect a recession to begin in 2023.”

Said on: 21 December 2022 · Washington Post op-ed, "What the Fed should do next on inflation"
Source: What the Fed should do next on inflation · Lawrence H. Summers (reprint of Washington Post column)
Should come true: 2023
How sure they sounded: expect
Categories: Economy
Importance: 3 of 5 · A US recession matters to the national economy and to markets.

Outcome

Inaccurate

NBER has dated no US recession after April 2020. Unemployment stayed between 3.4% and 3.9% throughout 2023 (BLS), so no recession began that year.

Evidence:

History