Larry Summers

The US economy will enter a recession as a result of the 2025 Trump tariffs, adding about 2 million unemployed.

“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”

Said on

8 April 2025 · Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Week with David Westin, after the April 2025 tariff announcement

Source

Summers Warns US Likely Headed to Recession, 2 Million Jobless · Bloomberg Tax

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

more likely than not

Categories

EconomyPolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · A tariff-driven US recession would hit the national economy and trading partners.

Outcome

Inaccurate

No window was given; the context (tariffs "now in train") implies a recession within about 12-18 months, i.e. by October 2026. No recession has occurred: Q1 2026 real GDP grew at a 2.1% rate and unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026, far from the ~2 million extra jobless he described, and NBER has dated no recession.

Evidence:

• https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-1st
• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm
• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions