Jeremy Siegel

The Fed will cut the federal funds rate to about 3.5% and then begin raising it in the second half of 2008.

“I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.”

Said on

17 December 2007 · 2008 outlook column for Yahoo Finance, excerpted on Crossing Wall Street

Source

Jeremy Siegel's Outlook for 2008 · Crossing Wall Street

Should come true

Q4 2008

How sure they sounded

I believe

Categories

BankingEconomy

Importance

3 of 5 · US monetary policy path; matters to the whole US economy.

Outcome

Inaccurate

The Fed did cut to 3.5% in January 2008, but kept cutting (to 2% by April and to 0-0.25% in December 2008) and never raised rates in the second half of 2008. The central part of the call, a reversal upward in 2H 2008, did not happen.

Evidence:

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm