After the Fed's September 2024 rate cut, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields (then about 3.7% and 4.1%) will rise, possibly significantly, within about a year.
Accurate ●●●●●
“My suspicion is that there's some upwards adjustment ahead in longer term rates — perhaps quite significant upwards adjustment in the 10-year rate or the 30-year rate”
- Said on
- 19 September 2024 · Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Week with David Westin, after the Fed's 50bp cut of September 18, 2024
- Source
- Summers sees Fed rate projections upended, higher mortgage rates · American Banker (Bloomberg News)
- Should come true
- 2025
- How sure they sounded
- my suspicion; perhaps quite significant
- Categories
- MarketsEconomy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · Long-term Treasury yields set US mortgage rates and global borrowing costs.
Outcome
Accurate Happened 14 January 2025.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 3.7% when he spoke to about 4.8% by mid-January 2025, and the 30-year passed 5% in 2025. That is a significant upward move, counter to the usual pattern after a Fed cut, and it came inside the inferred one-year window.
History
- 2026-10-17 00:15:48 · created by claude
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