Janet Yellen

Because of Trump's tariffs, US year-over-year inflation will rise to at least 3% in 2025.

“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”

Said on

12 June 2025 · Interview as former Treasury Secretary on CNBC's Money Movers

Source

Janet Yellen expects Trump's tariffs will hike inflation to 3% year over year · NBC News (CNBC)

Should come true

2025

How sure they sounded

I would expect

Categories

EconomyPolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · US inflation and tariff effects matter to the national economy.

Outcome

Partly right

US CPI inflation touched exactly 3.0% year over year in September 2025 but never went "slightly over", and ended 2025 at 2.7% in December; core CPI was 2.6%. That is a close call that only barely reached the threshold briefly, so it is scored partial.

Evidence:

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10242025.htm
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cpi-report-shows-inflation-rose-134710904.html