Janet Yellen

Absent congressional action, the US Treasury will run out of cash and extraordinary measures by early June 2023, possibly as early as June 1.

“our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time.”

Said on

1 May 2023 · Official letter from the Treasury Secretary to congressional leadership on the debt limit

Source

Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen Sends Letter to Congressional Leadership on the Debt Limit · US Department of the Treasury

Should come true

15 Jun 2023

How sure they sounded

our best estimate

Categories

PoliticsEconomy

Importance

4 of 5 · A US government default would have major global financial consequences.

Outcome

Unresolvable

Congress suspended the debt limit through the Fiscal Responsibility Act, signed June 3, 2023, before cash ran out, so the X-date was never tested. Treasury later refined the estimate to June 5, which was broadly consistent with "early June", but the forecast cannot be confirmed.

Evidence:

• https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3746