Dario Amodei

AI systems with capabilities akin to a "country of geniuses in a datacenter" will exist possibly by 2026-2027 and almost certainly no later than 2030.

“Possibly by 2026 or 2027 (and almost certainly no later than 2030), the capabilities of AI systems will be best thought of as akin to an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage—a "country of geniuses in a datacenter"”

Said on

11 February 2025 · Statement on the Paris AI Action Summit, published on anthropic.com

Source

Statement from Dario Amodei on the Paris AI Action Summit · Anthropic

Should come true

2030

How sure they sounded

Possibly (2026-2027); almost certainly (no later than 2030)

Categories

AI

Importance

5 of 5 · AI broadly at the level of many top human experts would be a civilization-scale change.

Outcome

Not scored yet.