Vitalik Buterin

Prediction markets will become an increasingly important application on Ethereum in the years after 2021.

“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”

Said on

18 February 2021 · Blog post on vitalik.eth.limo

Source

Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election · Vitalik Buterin's website

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

I expect

Categories

Crypto

Importance

2 of 5 · Concerns the growth of one application category within crypto.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 4 November 2024.

Crypto prediction markets grew sharply: Polymarket's 2024 US presidential winner market alone passed $3 billion in reported volume (with wash-trading allegations of ~30%), making prediction markets one of the most prominent crypto applications.

Evidence:

• https://www.theblock.co/post/324357/us-presidential-winner-prediction-market-crosses-3-billion-on-polymarket-a-day-before-the-election