Vitalik Buterin

AI chatbots' coding ability will keep improving quickly and their coding bugs will be ironed out over the following couple of years.

“AI is improving quickly and I expect it to keep improving further and ironing out bugs like this over time.”

Said on

6 December 2022 · Blog post on testing ChatGPT for coding; "over time" inferred as about two years

Source

Updating my blog: a quick GPT chatbot coding experiment · Vitalik Buterin's website

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

I expect

Categories

AITechnology

Importance

2 of 5 · Concerns the near-term trajectory of AI coding tools for software engineering.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2024.

Inferred window about two years. AI coding ability improved rapidly: the Stanford AI Index 2025 reports SWE-bench scores (fixing real GitHub bugs) rose by 67.3 percentage points in a single year (2023 to 2024).

Evidence:

• https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report